A PREDICTION OF PAIN
Dreamtime at the G was … good enough?
After the devastating defeat at the hands of the Western Bulldogs only a week prior, Essendon’s 23 point win over the lowly Richmond Tigers was something akin to a mixed performance.
Nic Martin was electric – The inside 50’s were appalling.
The midfield was dominant – Turnovers were a nightmare.
But at the end of the day, a win is a win. The Bombers now sit at the quintessentially Essendon position of 10th on the ladder, with a 6-4 record and a meagre percentage of 85.0. Things could be better, and we all know the flaws the club is suffering from, not to mention the litany of injuries that has Brad Scott and co scraping the bottom of the barrel at VFL level simply to field a side. But then again, things could be significantly worse … and sadly, there’s a serious chance worse is waiting for the club on Thursday.
Because, on Thursday night the Dons begin a month that will not just challenge the team, but set up the remainder of the 2025 campaign.
So, deep breath because first up is…
BRISBANE V ESSENDON
WHERE: The Gabba
WHEN: 7:30PM Thursday, 29/05
EXPECTATIONS: Oh man this has pain written all over it!
It’s awful to go into a game with the hope that the club can exit it with just a minor blowout. Because, let’s be honest, the Brisbane Lions are lightyears ahead of the Bombers. From the front where Charlie Cameron is diabolically dangerous, to the middle where a cohort of hardnosed mids like Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Lachie Neale tear apart seasoned finals-bound sides, all the way into a back where Harris Andrews commands a well-disciplined backline designed to eat up lazy long kicks and thoughtless bombs, Brisbane is exactly the kind of team Essendon is not ready to face.
If the club isn’t prepared to diversify their entries into the forward-50 or even simpler, how they exit the back half, a significant percentage crusher awaits.
HOW TO WIN: Witchcraft. Straight up magic may be the only way this Essendon outfit can find a path to victory. Deals with Satan have often been considered, yet the wait times are significant, and the club may not be able to file their request in time for the match. But yeah, dark magic is the only way that the Dons get the W in QLD.
Though Brisbane looks a little shaky in ‘25, they remain an enormous hurdle for this young Dons team.
CARLTON V ESSENDON
WHERE: Melbourne Cricket Ground
WHEN: 7:20PM Sunday, 08/06
EXPECTATIONS: There’s always been some good discussion about who it hurts to lose to more. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Richmond or Carlton. But if you ask me, there’s nothing worse than losing to the Blues. Those filthy, filthy bastards.
The Bombers newest primetime annual event will put the spotlight firmly on whoever loses this match. Because, despite Essendon’s recent woes, Carlton are having a rough 2025 as it stands and losing to an arch-rival the night before a public holiday is just what both of these sides will be praying to avoid. So that means just one thing – one of them is gonna have a shocker.
But it’s hard to tell who.
Both the Blues and Essendon have had confusing mixes of form this season, with both suffering from severe bouts of fadeouts and struggles to score with any potency. Head-to-head, the sides are relatively balanced with Carlton getting six wins from the last 10, including most-recently a 26-point win in the same fixture in 2024. It’s hard to imagine the margin will be any higher, no matter who wins on that Sunday night in June.
I don’t think it’s going to be striking to anyone that the key to winning this game will start with doing what Essendon seems incapable of doing – nullify an opponent’s most damaging players.
Guys like Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow and Sam Walsh are a good place to start.
And Adam Saad! Gotta keep him quiet because unlike Aaron Francis, I doubt he’ll do us the same favour that ol’ Franga did when the Swans came to town a week back. Truly a Don through and through, but not Saady…the thought of him torching the sash is the stuff of nightmares. And as we all know, Planes’ fans know a thing or two about nightmares.
HOW TO WIN: There’s only one way that the club can get the W against Carlton … each and every one of the 22 must be on and firing, well, whoever is left! Either that or, you know, someone finds a significant number of incriminating photos of Carlton players that a good game of blackmail can ensue.
We shall see…
Two legacy clubs. Two traditional rivals. Two teams desperate to return to the promise land.
ESSENDON V GEELONG
WHERE: Melbourne Cricket Ground
WHEN: 4:15PM Saturday, 14/06
EXPECTATIONS: Geelong has beaten Essendon the last seven outings, and they’re not little losses either. They are brutal! And despite not having the most convincing campaign in 2025, the Cats are currently sitting on seven wins from 11 and a percentage of 122.0. Nothing to spit at, especially from a Dons’ perspective.
And unless something changes soon, the Hoops will be growing that percentage when they head up the highway for their bout against the Bombers in June.
Despite significant player turnover, the number of damaging players on the Cats team remains high. Jeremy Cameron, Gryan Miers, Bailey Smith, Zach Guthrie and of course, the anti-Christ himself, Patrick Dangerfield are all problems for this emerging and spluttering Bombers side.
Pain. I expect pain.
HOW TO WIN: Time travel. Don’t know how or why. But time travel.
The Cats have enjoyed dining out on the Bombers for almost 20 years, can the Dons turn the tide?
FREMANTLE V ESSENDON
WHERE: Optus Stadium
WHEN: 8:10PM Thursday, 19/06
EXPECTATIONS: Who in god’s name knows! Fremantle is about as much of a lock to disappoint their fans as Essendon is. Inconsistent and criminally unreliable, the Dockers are just frustrating for their legions in purple.
But that does not mean they are not without their weapons. From Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss, Michael Frederick and former Bomber Patrick Voss up front to Caleb Serong, Angus Brayshaw and Luke Jackson in the guts all the way to the backline where Alex Pearce and Luke Ryan stand guard, Fremantle aren’t short on talent. And considering the state of Essendon’s list, due to what can only be described as plague-esque injuries, this is a worry.
Despite having won an identical amount of games as the Bombers to this point, Fremantle is considerably stronger, and a hefty loss out west is looking firm.
HOW TO WIN: Ross Lyon returns as coach of the Dockers.
All in all, I struggle to see where a single win is coming for the Dons over the next four weeks, with a lucky W over Carlton being the most promising of outcomes. Significant losses are more likely, and if the club loses another player … 2016’s replacement list will start to look like a solid option for the remainder of the year!
Should the worst occur, this would position the Dons with a record of 6-8 with a game in hand, and most likely an appalling percentage. Nothing new there.
A very Essendon record.
A very Essendon season.
And most frighteningly, a very Essendon back half of the year to come.
After a quietly pleasing month and a bit of footy behind the club, a bottom-6 finish is firmly in the Dons’ future. We can only hope that Melbourne has an equally poor record come the end of the year and a pair of quality first round picks is in Matt Rosa’s hand.
It’s the little things that get you through.
It’s the Essendon way.
Go Planes.